Modeling the bitcoin price based on the value of all coins when they last moved on-chain — Realized Value On September 23rd, 2018, at the Baltic Honeybadger conference in Riga, Nic Carter presented the concept of realized value (originally ‘realized cap’, but both terms are since then used interchangeably) that he had developed in collaboration with Antoine Le Calvez. By leveraging the Bitcoin timechain, which holds a public record…

Learning how Bitcoin works using on-chain data visualizations — Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment mechanism is of its most important aspects, but learning how it works can be a daunting task. This article leverages on-chain data to visualize how this mechanism works and how it relates to hash rate, block intervals, transaction fees and the mempool. After reading this article, you…

A reflection on Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle — and how a healthy block space market will eventually kill it for its own good — On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto launched the Bitcoin network by mining the first block (the “genesis block”) in the Bitcoin blockchain. Today, a bit more than 12 years later, the network stores over $1 trillion in value and transfers more than $20 billion in on-chain volume on a daily…

An indicator for the price bandwidth of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle — This article follows up on a previous one in which a metric was introduced that is being rebranded and expanded upon as the Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT). The BPT metric will first be described in a more detailed manner, including the rationale behind the proposed causal mechanism of its 4-year…

A simple indicator to visually assess Bitcoin price (ab)normality in its historical context — This article first addresses the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) Z-Score, an existing Bitcoin price metric that inspired the author to develop the new indicator that is introduced in this article. After briefly describing an alternative version of the MVRV Z-Score, the new Bitcoin Price Z-Score is introduced. The Bitcoin Price Z-Score is…