An indicator for the price bandwidth of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle

This article follows up on a previous one in which a metric was introduced that is being rebranded and expanded upon as the Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT). The BPT metric will first be described in a more detailed manner, including the rationale behind the proposed causal mechanism of its 4-year market cycles, the interpretation of the BPT metric and its limitations. Thereafter, the BPT Bands concept is introduced and supported by several charts in which the indicator and its potential application are visualized.

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Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle

When Bitcoin was launched, early network participants were rewarded 50 BTC for each new block that was…

A simple indicator to visually assess Bitcoin price (ab)normality in its historical context

This article first addresses the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) Z-Score, an existing Bitcoin price metric that inspired the author to develop the new indicator that is introduced in this article. After briefly describing an alternative version of the MVRV Z-Score, the new Bitcoin Price Z-Score is introduced. The Bitcoin Price Z-Score is a relatively simple indicator that can be used to visually assess to what extent the current-day Bitcoin price is (ab)normal in comparison to its own price history. …

A brief history of Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow models

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A little more than one year ago, a Dutch investor that chose to publish his Bitcoin-related work under the pseudonym PlanB published an article in which he introduced the Bitoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. Since then, the model became very popular and a lot has happened. After several independent reviews that provided additional evidence, the relationship between Bitcoin’s value and scarcity was considered provably non-spurious. Recently, those conclusions were shown to be flawed, and a new model that overcomes these flaws was introduced. …


Bitcoin enthusiast interested in Bitcoinometrics, on-chain data, Austrian economics, privacy & self-sovereignty

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