A reflection on Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle — and how a healthy block space market will eventually kill it for its own good

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On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto launched the Bitcoin network by mining the first block (the “genesis block”) in the Bitcoin blockchain. Today, a bit more than 12 years later, the network stores over $1 trillion in value and transfers more than $20 billion in on-chain volume on a daily basis. To get there, Bitcoin went through multiple boom and bust cycles in which it was praised to the moon and declared dead many times over — every time to resurrect from the death. …

An indicator for the price bandwidth of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle

This article follows up on a previous one in which a metric was introduced that is being rebranded and expanded upon as the Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT). The BPT metric will first be described in a more detailed manner, including the rationale behind the proposed causal mechanism of its 4-year market cycles, the interpretation of the BPT metric and its limitations. Thereafter, the BPT Bands concept is introduced and supported by several charts in which the indicator and its potential application are visualized.

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Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle

When Bitcoin was launched, early network participants were rewarded 50 BTC for each new block that was…

A simple indicator to visually assess Bitcoin price (ab)normality in its historical context

This article first addresses the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) Z-Score, an existing Bitcoin price metric that inspired the author to develop the new indicator that is introduced in this article. After briefly describing an alternative version of the MVRV Z-Score, the new Bitcoin Price Z-Score is introduced. The Bitcoin Price Z-Score is a relatively simple indicator that can be used to visually assess to what extent the current-day Bitcoin price is (ab)normal in comparison to its own price history. …

A brief history of Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow models

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A little more than one year ago, a Dutch investor that chose to publish his Bitcoin-related work under the pseudonym PlanB published an article in which he introduced the Bitoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. Since then, the model became very popular and a lot has happened. After several independent reviews that provided additional evidence, the relationship between Bitcoin’s value and scarcity was considered provably non-spurious. Recently, those conclusions were shown to be flawed, and a new model that overcomes these flaws was introduced. …


Fascinated by #Bitcoin’s on-chain data, 4-year cycle & potential as the base-layer of an optimistic, sound future. Focus on the signal, ignore the noise.

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